No, and for many reasons. Here are a few: First, and most importantly, “open interest” does not measure the number of options that customers (i.e. non market-makers) are long options. Open interest will rise even if customers are mostly selling options. Options open interest is simply a count of all open options positions, with one party long and one party short. Market makers will...
There is a gap immediately above the current price, and then a gap 200 points below. For the /ES, gaps tend to be very strong magnets that don’t generally get ignored. My experience leads me to believe both these gaps will be filled before the market gets too far from either gap.
Which way will it go? Just like with magnets, proximity usually increases the strength of the “pull”
These gaps represent areas where there were no prints during regular trading hours for the S&P 500 E-mini futures contract using hourly bars. Currently, there are gaps above and below the market. To me, this indicates greater actual volatility is likely in store over the coming months, as this market tends to fill its gaps. Note how many gaps were filled, almost to the tick in...